Thoughts on Ukraine
Today the Biden Administration announced the U.S. will ban the importation of Russian oil. Apparently the White House was pressed by a bipartisan consensus in Congress that something must be done to help the Ukrainians, and since direct U.S. intervention via a no-fly-zone is currently off the table, this seemed like the next best thing.
The remains to be seen. With each new sanction against Russia, I wonder what the off ramp is for this war. The United Kingdom and Europe are sort-of following suit with a ban on Russian energy imports. Global brands like McDonalds and Starbucks are closing up shop inside Russia. Financial sanctions continue to impact the Russian economy.
The whole point of this appears to be more punishment than incentive, because it is not clear to me that the United States or its European allies are doing what should be the most important thing - trying to find a diplomatic solution to end the war as soon as possible. After all, if the world is (justifiably) outraged by the continued attacks on Ukraine, shouldn’t the highest objective be to end the slaughter as soon as possible?
Obviously one doesn’t hope that end comes with a pure Russian victory. So how can Russia save face by ending its attack without looking like it has taken a humiliating loss? There is no easy answer to this, but something I would hope Western diplomats would be working on. It does, in fact, appear that the Israelis are taking on the role of mediator and may be approaching some kind of deal, though it is too early to tell if that will succeed.
But those kind of efforts should be applauded, because the status quo is a horror in itself. I don’t think anyone believes that sanctions will cause Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. Putin is committed to victory, even if that means destroying the country. The West is not only committed to punishing Russia, but it appears to be flooding Ukraine with all kinds of weapons to fight back the invaders in a way that recalls Afghanistan of the 1980s. If that is the case, either side’s victory may be pyrrhic, leaving a country that has not just been destroyed physically, but economically, culturally and spiritually - all because it was on the chessboard between global powers.
The status quo also entails a continued anti-Russian hysteria in the West. Canada just cancelled the shows of a 20 year piano prodigy named Alexander Malofeev. Malofeev had denounced the invasion, writing “…the truth is that every Russian will feel guilty for decades because of the terrible and bloody decision that none of us could influence and predict.” However, organizers felt this denunciation wasn’t strong enough. He refused to issue a pre-written anti-war statement out of concern it could impact his family in Russia, so his shows were canceled. “Honestly, the only thing I can do now is to pray and cry,” Malofeev wrote.
Similar actions have been occurring with other Russian cultural and sports figures in the West. Russian restaurants, often not even owned by Russians, are being vandalized in cities like New York and Washington DC. This is an ugly xenophobia often unleashed when officials enemies are declared that ranges from things like the idiotic renaming of foods, to black lists or internment camps. I am not suggesting the latter would be occurring here, but the impulses come from the same well spring of jingoist fervor.
Those energies would best be channeled to finding a quick way to end the conflict. Let us hope the Israelis succeed, especially if no one else is even trying.