Biden's Folly
And avoiding the one thing that could help
A new poll out from the New York Times/Sienna offered a brutal reality to President Biden: 13% of the country thinks we are on the “right track”, 64% of Democrats don’t want Biden to run in 2024 and that number rises to 90% for people under 30. These are astonishing numbers for a President who is presiding over economic growth and a 3.6% unemployment rate.
But there are a lot of problems going on with the country. One of the biggest ones (though not the only one!) is inflation. And while this is nominally the Fed’s job, there are a few things Biden could do to try and help a little.
One is to try and push a diplomatic solution in Ukraine. I cannot emphasize enough how even the theory of a diplomatic solution is almost non-existent in Western discourse. It is either Ukraine wins or Russia wins. You have to go to the likes of Noam Chomsky or - bizarrely - Henry Kissinger to hear even the notion of a diplomatic settlement.
It is not to say that an effort by Biden to achieve peace through diplomacy would work. But he is not even trying. On the contrary, the position of his Administration is that the stated goal, according to Lloyd Austin, is not to simply get Russia out of Ukraine but to “weaken” Russia enough that it is militarily incapable of operating outside its borders again. That sounds nice but makes no sense in the real world. Additionally, Anthony Blinken has stated that the sanctions the West has imposed on Russia - in theory a good piece of leverage for diplomatic negotiations - would not be removed even if Russia withdraws from Ukraine.
With the war being a non-exclusive part of the reason for inflation in the West - inflation that is causing real pain and suffering to working Americans - Biden was asked how long he will press with this unrelenting effort in Ukraine. “As long as it takes,” Biden answered. How long is that? Well according to the Secretary-General of NATO, that could be years.
Years. Years of high energy prices. Years of chaos and destruction in Ukraine. Years of weapons contracts flowing to Lockheed Martin and other military contractors while Americans’ see their savings depreciate. Years of fruitless efforts to get Russia to let go of majority-Russian areas it believes are a geostrategic necessity for its national security (i.e., Crimea.) All for what?
I don’t know if Biden is out to lunch, is enthralled with the gushing reception he gets from the U.S. media and the councils of Europe or has decided we’re already in too far already so why pull out now. Perhaps its a mix of everything. But it is a bad policy - bad for Ukrainians, bad for Americans, bad for Biden and bad for the world.